North Korea: risks or rewards?

Q2 | June 2018

stack of old newspapers, pile of old newspapers

Topic: Pearls of Wisdom

Devin Crago CFA

June 29, 2018

Image used with permission: iStock/hanohiki


Print & Share

Print

North Korea: risks or rewards?

Q2 | June 2018

Reading is one of the principal occupations in our profession. As we digest a wide range of material, interesting ideas and surprising facts – some serious and some light-hearted – rise to the surface. We attempt to share a few of those with you in each of our issues of Nexus Notes.

North Korea: risks or rewards?

Among the many current issues worrying investors, the geopolitical risk surrounding North Korea is often near the top of the list. At its core, the worry from a narrow investment perspective is that if a major conflict erupts into a full-fledged war, this would be – to say the least – highly disruptive to the world economy. It’s a worry, and indeed a reasonable one given the country’s history of authoritarianism and isolation. What’s more, the risks have been magnified by North Korea’s new nuclear capabilities. However, this view skews towards a pessimistic interpretation of how the future will unfold. What if things don’t turn out quite so poorly? The market, as ever, has its contrarians. We read with interest the story of Busan Industrial’s recent stock surge of 500% since late April. Its Korean investors are betting (with gusto!) that the small cap South Korean construction company will be a big beneficiary if relations with North Korea thaw and the two economies become more connected over time.  (The Wall Street Journal, June 12, 2018)

A good idea is hard to find

How much effort do we have to put in to come up with a good idea? The romantic view of “ideation” is that, like Newton’s experience with the falling apple, great ideas are borne from a flash of insight seemingly derived from thin air. However, the more pragmatic reality is that many of the world’s great ideas come from years of hard-slogging research. In a sobering academic paper, professors from Stanford and MIT came to the conclusion that it’s getting that much harder to find new, breakthrough ideas:

“We present a wide range of evidence from various industries, products, and firms showing that research effort is rising substantially while research productivity is declining sharply. A good example is Moore’s Law. The number of researchers required today to achieve the famous doubling every two years of the density of computer chips is more than 18 times larger than the number required in the early 1970s. Across a broad range of case studies at various levels of (dis)aggregation, we find that ideas — and in particular the exponential growth they imply — are getting harder and harder to find.” (Bloom, Jones, Van Reenen, and Webb, “Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?,” March, 2018)

More Like This...

See another CRM2 blog post that may be of interest to you.

CRM2: The Nexus Approach to our CRM2 Reports

Topic:
CRM2
Excerpt:
With changing securities regulations coming into effect, investment firms are now required to provide individual investors with specific additional in

More Like This...

See another Foundations & Endowments blog post that may be of interest to you.

Charitable Giving Made Easier

Topic:
Foundations & Endowments
Excerpt:
Giving to charities and supporting our community are important to us at Nexus. We donate a portion of our management fees back to the charities and

More Like This...

See another Human Interest blog post that may be of interest to you.

The Case for Openness – An Open and Shut Case?

Topic:
Human Interest
Excerpt:
From time immemorial, mankind has been open. Open to new ideas, open to trade, and open to migration – the three critical ingredients for progress.

More Like This...

See another Inside Nexus blog post that may be of interest to you.

Embracing the Golden Years: A Journey of Reflection and Wisdom

Topic:
Human Interest, Inside Nexus
Excerpt:
It was an otherwise slow mid-afternoon trading session on the “old” floor of the Toronto Stock Exchange at 234 Bay St. The dog days of summer had

More Like This...

See another Investments blog post that may be of interest to you.

From Vineyards to Portfolios: Cultivating Long-Term Wealth

Topic:
Investments
Excerpt:
My wife and I have been stymied so far this summer in getting to the Niagara region for our annual weekend of cycling through the vineyards and

More Like This...

See another Pearls of Wisdom blog post that may be of interest to you.

“Work, Work, Work, Work, Work, Work”

Topic:
Pearls of Wisdom
Excerpt:
This has been a busy year. I’ve had lots happening on the home front (a wedding!) and lots going on at the office (too long to list!) Managing work

More Like This...

See another Tax Planning blog post that may be of interest to you.

Saving in my Professional Corporation – It’s a Great Idea!

Topic:
Tax Planning
Excerpt:
The ability for professionals in Canada to incorporate their practice has existed for some time. Doctors, dentists, lawyers, accountants, and other

More Like This...

See another Wealth Planning blog post that may be of interest to you.

Dentists Get Their Financial Check-Up: Nexus attends the 2022 Ontario Dental Conference

Topic:
Wealth Planning
Excerpt:
In early May, we had the opportunity to attend the Ontario Dental Association’s (ODA) Annual Spring Meeting (ASM) in Toronto. Now in its 157th year,

On a Side Note…

See another CRM2 Nexus Notes Quarterly article that may be of interest to you.

No posts found.

On a Side Note…

See another Foundations & Endowments Nexus Notes Quarterly article that may be of interest to you.

Charitable Giving Made Easier

Topic:
Foundations & Endowments
Excerpt:
Giving to charities and supporting our community are important to us at Nexus. We donate a portion of our management fees back to the charities and

On a Side Note…

See another Human Interest Nexus Notes Quarterly article that may be of interest to you.

Worth 1,000 Words

Topic:
Human Interest
Excerpt:
A little humour makes the world a better place.

On a Side Note…

See another Inside Nexus Nexus Notes Quarterly article that may be of interest to you.

Where Have All the Boutiques Gone?

Topic:
Inside Nexus
Excerpt:
Many small, once independently managed, firms have fallen into the clutches of larger organizations such as banks, institutional money managers and

On a Side Note…

See another Investments Nexus Notes Quarterly article that may be of interest to you.

Don’t Worry, Be Happy

Topic:
Investments
Excerpt:
A recent article by David Brooks in The Atlantic magazine argues that, despite the heavy shroud of pessimism that envelopes most of our current

On a Side Note…

See another Pearls of Wisdom Nexus Notes Quarterly article that may be of interest to you.

Pearls of Wisdom

Topic:
Pearls of Wisdom
Excerpt:
Reading is one of the principal occupations in our profession. As we digest a wide range of material, interesting ideas and surprising facts – some

On a Side Note…

See another Tax Planning Nexus Notes Quarterly article that may be of interest to you.

A Nexus Feature on: First Home Savings Accounts (FHSA)

Topic:
Tax Planning
Excerpt:
The FHSA is a registered plan to help Canadians save for their first home and could play a role in either your or your adult child’s overall wealth

On a Side Note…

See another Wealth Planning Nexus Notes Quarterly article that may be of interest to you.

From The Editor: Planning for Long-Term Care

Topic:
Wealth Planning, Living to 100
Excerpt:
As part of our Living to 100 series, Nexus hosted a client event in June featuring guest speaker Karen Henderson, an expert in long-term care planning